NL and Playoff Predictions

I decided to wait on my National League predictions until today so the Braves and Nationals could shape my entire projection of the NL East. OK, maybe not. So, here goes:

NL East
1. New York
2. Philadelphia
3. Atlanta
4. Washington
5. Florida

Comments: Santana's acquisition is a big deal because it gives the Mets a stopper every fifth day and helps move the rest of their rotation back into better roles. The NYM lineup is strong (to very strong...like Greg Focker's portfolio), so long as it's fairly healthy. The Phils will be ready to pounce on the division title if key Mets wind up on the D.L. for lengthy periods. While they have questions in the back end of their rotation and with Lidge's health, the lineup should produce big numbers (Feliz was a great pickup--both offensively and defensively) and Myers move to the rotation will be positive. I'm not as sold on the Braves as some experts are at the moment. It's a good, young lineup, but let's not assume they'll all put up great years. Beyond Chipper and Tex, it's a crap shoot. I like their pitching, but the rotation is a little geriatric. The Nationals and Marlins are both going in the right direction. Washington, with a new ballpark and respectable lineup, are weak in pitching. The Marlins, despite a Major League low $16 million in payroll, did get very good return in the Cabrera/Willis deal with the Tigers. It will just take them awhile to rebuild--AGAIN.

NL Central
1. Chicago
2. Milwaukee
3. Cincinnati
4. Pittsburgh
5. Houston
6. St. Louis

Comments: Yes, the Cubs have questions in their bullpen and in some spots in their lineup, but their pitching has gotten much better the last two years and Derrek Lee is poised for a bounce-back year. Fukudome appears to be a great addition and there's that long-speculated possibility that Brian Roberts will arrive from Baltimore in a trade soon. The Brewers don't have quite enough in their rotation, bullpen, or defense to be able to wrest the division from the Cubs. They should contend for the wildcard, though. I love Milwaukee's new "Wallbangers" in Fielder, Braun, and company, but scoring scads of runs won't be enough. I really like the Reds pick up of Francisco Cordero and Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo make up an underrated 1-2 punch in the rotation. If this Cueto kids delivers on the rave reviews he got from scouts and media in spring training...look out. Cincinnati will score plenty with that lineup and home ballpark. They just have to pitch better and I think they will. While I'm picking the Pirates fourth, it's less about their improvement (which will be modest), than it is the continued descent of the Astros and Cardinals. Snell, Gorzelanny, Capps and Marte are legitimate talents and Jason Bay should rebound, but how many victories will that really account for? As I've said many times, they are one injury or poor performance away from scrambling because the organization has zero depth. Outside of Carlos Lee and Roy Oswalt, what is there to be excited about as an Astros' fan? Same question in St. Louis, where the house cleaning included the GM and two key pieces of the '06 World Champs (Eckstein and Rolen). Add that to Pujols' fragile elbow and...yikes.

NL West
1. Diamondbacks
2. Rockies
3. Dodgers
4. Padres
5. Giants

Comments: The Snakes look poised for another division title, especially after the addition of Dan Haren. Combined with Webb, Davis, Owings, and eventually The Big Unit...what's not to like about the rotation. The back end of the bullpen will be interesting after trading away their closer, but I have to figure they are confident in what they have. Arizona's young lineup is fun to watch. Ditto for the Rockies' lineup, but beyond Francis and Jimenez the rotation is a little iffy when you're relying on Pirates' castoffs in Wells and Redman once every five days. However, if they can just get six innnings from the starters more often than not, I love Colorado's bullpen. As for the Dodgers, Joe Torre's masterful stroke will be put to the test by his new club. LA is not bad with a good rotation, solid bullpen, the best catcher in the NL and a budding star in first baseman James Loney. But, the rest of the infield is suspect offensively and I'm not sure Andruw Jones will like the change in home ballparks both at the plate and in the field. Peavy, Young, and Maddux comprise a great top of the rotation in San Diego, but will the Padres score enough to win in places like Colorado and San Francisco on a regular basis? Who is Callix Crabbe, by the way? While I think Barry Zito will have a Comeback Player of the Year campaign and their pitching isn't bad overall. I think the offense will be challenged without Bonds and Feliz. Rowand should help, but will he have any help?

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

AL Division Series: Tigers over Mariners, Red Sox over Indians
NL Division Series: Diamondbacks over Phillies, Mets over Cubs

AL Championship Series: Red Sox over Tigers
NL Championship Series: Mets over Diamondbacks

World Series: Mets over Red Sox

AL Forecast & Burnie's Plight

At long last, here are my predictions for the 2008 MLB season (AL today, NL tomorrow). Before you go to your bookie, keep in mind that I had the Tigers and Mets squaring off in the '07 World Series...uh, yeah.

AL East
1. Boston
2. Toronto
3. New York
4. Tampa Bay
5. Baltimore

Comments: I don't care about the trip to Japan and Schilling's injury, the Red Sox are the deepest, well-built team in this division, if not all of baseball. Some may be surprised by my pick of the Blue Jays finishing second. They were injury-plagued last season and Vernon Wells had a down year. I like their one-two punch of Halladay and Burnett and they've got more than enough offense. I just don't like the Yankees' rotation. When you're relying on Pettitte, Mussina, and a couple of talented, but unproven starters, I really don't care how much you hit. The "newly-named" Rays will be improved and you have to love their young, budding stars. James Shields is a stud in-the-making, Scott Kazmir is as-advertised, and Matt Garza was a good addition in a trade with the Twinkies. Then you have Carl Crawford leading a solid lineup. Baltimore is in yet-another rebuild, but I think they have good baseball people in charge now and the return for Bedard was solid. Nick Markakis is probably the best player you've hardly heard of.

AL Central
1. Cleveland
2. Detroit
3. Minnesota
4. Kansas City
5. Chicago

Comments: Top of the Indians' rotation and their setup men are deadly. Plus, any lineup with Sizemore, Hafner, Martinez, and the unsung Ryan Garko will score plenty of runs. Speaking of runs, the Tigers' starting lineup is arguably the best in baseball, though Granderson's absence will be felt early. Detroit has too many pitching questions (rotation and bullpen) to win the division, though. No doubt the Twins' rotation has been significantly weakened by the departures of Santana and Garza, but they have some good young arms that should get them 5-6 innings per night before turning it over to the deepest bullpen in the league. Lest we forget, Minnesota still has guys named Morneau, Mauer, Cuddyer and the newly-acquired, bat-slinging Delmon Young. I really like what Kansas City is doing, but they are still not ready to compete for the division. Gil Meche and Brian Bannister head a decent rotation and Billy Buck is one of the many exciting, young position players the Royals are developing on the big league level. Do I need to waste a sentence on the White Sox? What are they doing? Sure, they'll still hit a few balls over the wall, but I think Williams and Guillen are slowly giving themselves enough rope.

AL West
1. Seattle
2. Los Angeles
3. Texas
4. Oakland

Comments: M's GM Bill Bavasi knows after the acquisition of Erik Bedard, it's now or never for him. The good news is, it looks like that move will be the difference-maker. Bedard, Felix Hernandez, and three innings-eaters like Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, and Carlos Silva comprise a strong rotation. Beltre and Sexson have struggled to hit the longball in the hitter-friendly Safeco, but they have plenty of help in the lineup with Ichiro, Ibanez, Johjima, and Betancourt. The front-end of the Angels' rotation is in severe question to start the season with John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar on the shelf. The offense will get a nice jolt with the addition of Torii Hunter to a middle of the order that includes Vladi, the ageless Garret Anderson, and Gary Matthews, Jr. I really like the Rangers' lineup, especially with the additions of Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley. If they stay healthy, those two will put up huge numbers in that bandbox. Their rotation still stinks and their bullpen is full of questions. The A's are in a full rebuild, but they have good young players that will be ready to star in couple of years in a spanking, new ballpark. It will be interesting to see what Billy Beane will do with the promise of a lot more revenue in 2010.

NL Predictions will arrive on this blog on Saturday. I know. You can hardly wait.

Burnie's Plight
A quick note on Sean Burnett being the Pirates' final cut. I don't think it will be long before we see Burnie back in the big leagues as a reliever. If Phil Dumatrait or Franquelis Osoria stumbles badly or Evan Meek is too inconsistent to keep on the 25-man roster the whole year, look for the former Eastern League Post-Season All-Star to have his contract purchased from Indianapolis. At some point, players being out of options or carried because of Rule 5 restrictions won't outweigh performance. Hang in there, Burnie and congratulations on your new arrival.